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hello uh today i'm going to talk about

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how to find historical weather data for

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uh positions above the surface of the

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earth

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why might you need to do this well

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there's two reasons i personally have

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needed to do this in the past the first

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one has to do with contrails people

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often

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in the conspiracy world think that

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contrails are these chemtrails and they

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say that they're forming at an altitude

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that's too low for contrails to form so

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i used to have to look up the weather

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data at a certain altitude to see if a

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contrail could form at that altitude but

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what i'm really interested in today is

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the wind the wind speed and the wind

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direction at a certain altitude

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historically at a certain time date

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location and altitude

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and the reason i'm interested in this of

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course is because of ufos

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now

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a lot of ufo sightings are balloons and

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a lot of ufo sightings are suspected to

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be balloons or someone says they might

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be a balloon or a claim that is a

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balloon or they might claim that it

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isn't a balloon and one of the reasons

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that people say something can't be a

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balloon

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is that they think that the wind is

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blowing in the wrong direction and they

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will lock up some historical source of

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wind data and they will uh they will get

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it wrong and they will often say that

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the wind's going this direction when

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it's actually going in a different

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direction a specific example here is

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this rubber duck uh ufo the rubber duck

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ufo is possibly a drone or it's possibly

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a bunch of balloons that are just like

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flying over in a certain direction just

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being carried by the wind

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now

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we did a bit of analysis on this this

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earlier the the rubber duck ufo and

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we've got like a whole bunch of

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locations

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uh of where the plane was the plane that

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was taking the video and we tracked down

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the plane it's called irons 12

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and these are the positions that we have

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data for they're just rough

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data locations but it tells us kind of

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that you know here's one two three and

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it's roughly going

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in

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same way that this plane appears to be

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going very rough data but this is what

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we've got

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now we also have for this plane an

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altitude because we have some more

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detailed with some limited more detailed

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data and we can see where the flight

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path of the plane

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and the ground track of the camera

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um

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there are the lines of sight here will

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intersect around here

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and it's probable that where they

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intersect is where you had where the

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actual balloon is if it is backed up

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balloon so it's probably at around this

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altitude

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2524 meters say 2500 meters above sea

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level

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so what we need to do is try to find the

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historical

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wind direction for that particular

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location the first thing that people

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will do is look up a historical weather

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site like uh whether underground has

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history from going quite a long way back

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you can put in a location

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and you can put in the the the date and

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you can get a little graph showing you

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what the wind speed was

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and the wind speed here

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we can see was pretty low

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uh at night and early morning and then

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it ramped up to around 15 and it's

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actually going you know in the right

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direction at that time but that's 9 a.m

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and if we look at

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uh the time here it says 9 a.m

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but it's actually zulu time and this is

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another important thing that people

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often get wrong is they don't actually

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use the correct time they use the wrong

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time zone they want to account for

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daylight savings time or they'll just

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use the day

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and because the wind speed and direction

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varies so much throughout the day that's

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going to lead you to the wrong results

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so here we have

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zero nine zero zero z z is for zulu zulu

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time is um greenwich mean time also

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known as utc

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and so you need to convert

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that to local time or

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always just use gmt utc or zulo time

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they're all the same thing

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so if we convert that to mountain time

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which we have here let's see is this

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mounting time

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i think this might be my local time but

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it's about the same time pacific so it's

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about uh seven or eight hours earlier

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than that so it will be down here so the

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surface winds in tucson which is near to

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our site are very low they're also going

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roughly in the right direction

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so that kind of works but then the ruins

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really aren't very fast enough but the

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problem of course here is we're just

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looking at surface wind so you don't

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want to look at surface winds you want

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to look at the winds aloft and you can

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get a very

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good idea of how much the winds aloft

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the winds at different altitudes vary

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from the winds at ground level by using

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this site

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earth.nullschool.net

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and this shows the wind it's basically

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got these green lines that show you uh

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which way the wind is blowing and kind

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of how fast the wind is blowing and you

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can see this is today's weather it's

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very windy and what we want is a spot

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somewhere around here somewhere on the

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border just uh 50 miles south of tucson

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which is where the ufo is

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and we can get a lot of information here

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i've clicked on this this location here

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and what we can do is we can actually

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uh edit the url to get it exactly the

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same as the ufo location so i'm gonna go

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uh minus one one one

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point four five and thirty one point

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and you see you already have that in

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earlier

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and that will just move this little dot

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here to that correct location so this is

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the wind right now

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it's 40 kilometers per hour you can

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change that to miles per hour which is

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uh much more

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friendly unit for us americans

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i am more or less american now

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then

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open up this box here

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we can uh we by default it's showing you

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the surface winds and the surface winds

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you know of most interest to most people

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but if you're flying or if you're

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interested in ufos there might be

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balloons you want to have the winds at

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altitude these

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numbers here represent air pressure it

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decreases as you get higher so you can

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pick a air pressure and it relates

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roughly to a certain altitude so if we

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go to 850

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that relates to

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about 1450 meters go to 700

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hectopascals on millibars

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that's about 3000 meters and we can see

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the difference between here between

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the uh

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the 3000 meter winds there's this big

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swirl around here and the surface winds

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uh which are kind of more irregular now

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you'll have to see you know vastly

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big differences because we're on a very

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windy day today the the winds are

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actually fairly similar in the lower

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altitudes so we want to go back in time

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let's go back to

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the dating question

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and we go here and it was 2019

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it was november the 23rd

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and we get a few choices for time uh

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down here it's local time we want to

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switch that to utc remember that is the

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zulu time

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and that's at nine o'clock at night at

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the moment so we zip that back to

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nine o'clock in the morning utc which is

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really the middle of the night in uh in

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arizona

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and now we can see how we're looking at

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the surface winds here and they're just

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kind of you know meandering around

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uh on that day 2019 november the 23rd at

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nine and let's see what the difference

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is at different altitudes so go to 850

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remember this is 1450

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meters

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and you can see that before they were

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going down at a kind of 45 degrees going

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towards the southwest and now they were

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going west slightly northwest and go to

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700 this is just another 1500 meters

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higher

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the wind is going in completely of the

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opposite direction which is something

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that happens

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sometimes you can get a

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a fairly small

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changing altitude can create a very

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large difference in the wind direction

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now the wind direction we actually want

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here is in between these two it's in

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between 850 and 700 so can we kind of

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take those two values and interpolate

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and say it's halfway between this

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direction and that direction well that's

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kind of nothing but so really it could

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be you know in pretty much in any

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direction

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uh let's go a little bit higher

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still and we see it's just a very strong

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wind blowing towards the east from the

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west

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this is another area of confusion is

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that often

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winds are given

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in terms of the direction they are

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blowing from and people think that they

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are

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the direction is the wind the wave

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blowing too so someone says a north wind

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that isn't a wind blowing towards the

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north it's a wind blowing from the north

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you can think of it uh intuitively a

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north wind is a cold wind because it's

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coming from the wind the southerly wind

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is a warm wind

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so if you think of a wind at the west is

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blowing towards the west but a wind from

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the west from the west so a westerly

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wind comes from the west

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can be confusing you've got to make sure

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you got it right

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um

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okay

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so you can see that the headings on the

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winds here tell you where it's coming

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from if we look here it says 85 degrees

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which is 90 degrees over towards the

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east so it's coming from the east and

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this you know can confuse people

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so uh

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another another thing that people do

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which can be a mistake is use

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atmospheric soundings

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now

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the way

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this particular

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site works

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is that it's using what's called a zero

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hour weather forecast

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it's taking all the data from all the

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different sensors we have around the

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world

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all the the weather balloon soundings

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and all the uh the

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ground stations and all the

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00:10:27,990 --> 00:10:26,320
uh satellite data and that's all being

284
00:10:29,269 --> 00:10:28,000
pumped into a model there's various

285
00:10:32,230 --> 00:10:29,279
different models

286
00:10:33,829 --> 00:10:32,240
uh computer models and the model will

287
00:10:36,310 --> 00:10:33,839
forecast the weather now the main

288
00:10:37,750 --> 00:10:36,320
purpose of forecasting the weather is to

289
00:10:39,269 --> 00:10:37,760
predict what it's going to be like a few

290
00:10:41,430 --> 00:10:39,279
days in the future

291
00:10:42,790 --> 00:10:41,440
but it also allows you to tell to figure

292
00:10:45,190 --> 00:10:42,800
out what the weather will be like

293
00:10:46,550 --> 00:10:45,200
between two weather stations

294
00:10:48,150 --> 00:10:46,560
because it gives you if you take the

295
00:10:50,069 --> 00:10:48,160
zero hour forecast which is essentially

296
00:10:52,069 --> 00:10:50,079
the forecast for what it is right now

297
00:10:54,470 --> 00:10:52,079
with the most up-to-date data

298
00:10:56,630 --> 00:10:54,480
then uh you can pick a spot in between

299
00:10:58,790 --> 00:10:56,640
two weather stations and you can

300
00:11:00,710 --> 00:10:58,800
calculate in a much more exact way than

301
00:11:02,870 --> 00:11:00,720
simply averaging the two

302
00:11:04,870 --> 00:11:02,880
what the weather is going to be like

303
00:11:07,110 --> 00:11:04,880
at that position but a lot of people

304
00:11:08,470 --> 00:11:07,120
would just take a single sounding

305
00:11:12,310 --> 00:11:08,480
they'll take one weather station now

306
00:11:16,550 --> 00:11:13,670
whether

307
00:11:18,069 --> 00:11:16,560
at altitude is mostly derived from

308
00:11:19,910 --> 00:11:18,079
weather balloons and a weather balloon

309
00:11:21,269 --> 00:11:19,920
is just a big balloon that is sent up

310
00:11:22,470 --> 00:11:21,279
into the sky

311
00:11:27,430 --> 00:11:22,480
and

312
00:11:28,389 --> 00:11:27,440
measures

313
00:11:35,509 --> 00:11:28,399
the

314
00:11:37,269 --> 00:11:35,519
at various altitudes as it rises up

315
00:11:39,269 --> 00:11:37,279
through the sky and radios it back down

316
00:11:40,230 --> 00:11:39,279
to the ground and they do this twice a

317
00:11:42,230 --> 00:11:40,240
day

318
00:11:45,030 --> 00:11:42,240
from a number of stations across the

319
00:11:47,350 --> 00:11:45,040
united states and there's various sites

320
00:11:49,910 --> 00:11:47,360
that you can use to look up uh what

321
00:11:52,150 --> 00:11:49,920
these these what the actual results are

322
00:11:53,509 --> 00:11:52,160
uh there's there's one

323
00:11:56,310 --> 00:11:53,519
uh

324
00:11:57,990 --> 00:11:56,320
in tucson there's one just about here a

325
00:11:59,670 --> 00:11:58,000
little bit about 60 miles or so to the

326
00:12:02,629 --> 00:11:59,680
north of this site and that's the

327
00:12:04,389 --> 00:12:02,639
closest one to this size and it actually

328
00:12:05,509 --> 00:12:04,399
it looks like

329
00:12:06,790 --> 00:12:05,519
looks like this this is a weather

330
00:12:08,790 --> 00:12:06,800
balloon this is the weather balloon on

331
00:12:11,350 --> 00:12:08,800
the roof of the national weather service

332
00:12:14,470 --> 00:12:11,360
in tucson and it's about to be released

333
00:12:15,750 --> 00:12:14,480
this is a radio sound which is a the

334
00:12:17,910 --> 00:12:15,760
instruments and a little radio

335
00:12:19,590 --> 00:12:17,920
transceiver which will send the data

336
00:12:23,269 --> 00:12:19,600
back down to the ground

337
00:12:25,990 --> 00:12:23,279
and they just simply let the balloon go

338
00:12:27,269 --> 00:12:26,000
and it rises up into the air

339
00:12:29,430 --> 00:12:27,279
flies off

340
00:12:31,670 --> 00:12:29,440
and this little thing underneath it

341
00:12:34,629 --> 00:12:31,680
radiates back the the data

342
00:12:36,710 --> 00:12:34,639
so you get this nice vertical

343
00:12:38,629 --> 00:12:36,720
trace through the air and you can figure

344
00:12:40,790 --> 00:12:38,639
out what the weather is like in that

345
00:12:42,790 --> 00:12:40,800
particular location and then you feed

346
00:12:44,230 --> 00:12:42,800
all that data into these computer models

347
00:12:46,389 --> 00:12:44,240
and it figures out what the data what

348
00:12:48,389 --> 00:12:46,399
the weather is like in other locations

349
00:12:50,310 --> 00:12:48,399
but if you just take this data the data

350
00:12:52,230 --> 00:12:50,320
from this one balloon you're just going

351
00:12:54,230 --> 00:12:52,240
to get the weather at that one location

352
00:12:56,949 --> 00:12:54,240
which might not be the same as the

353
00:12:59,430 --> 00:12:56,959
weather 50 60 miles south in the ufo

354
00:13:01,110 --> 00:12:59,440
location so what people will do

355
00:13:03,590 --> 00:13:01,120
is they will go to a site like this the

356
00:13:06,389 --> 00:13:03,600
university of wyoming

357
00:13:08,069 --> 00:13:06,399
department of atmospheric science has a

358
00:13:11,110 --> 00:13:08,079
page where you can excuse me where you

359
00:13:13,030 --> 00:13:11,120
can pick these these weather stations

360
00:13:14,710 --> 00:13:13,040
and you can stick in the date you can

361
00:13:17,350 --> 00:13:14,720
then click on the weather station so i'm

362
00:13:19,590 --> 00:13:17,360
going to click on tucson down here

363
00:13:21,269 --> 00:13:19,600
and now before i do that notice this is

364
00:13:23,190 --> 00:13:21,279
the continental united states here and

365
00:13:24,790 --> 00:13:23,200
there really aren't very many what is

366
00:13:25,750 --> 00:13:24,800
that there's probably like about 40 or

367
00:13:27,269 --> 00:13:25,760
so

368
00:13:29,190 --> 00:13:27,279
weather stations and they're very widely

369
00:13:31,190 --> 00:13:29,200
spaced there's only two in all of

370
00:13:33,509 --> 00:13:31,200
arizona and there's only i think three

371
00:13:35,509 --> 00:13:33,519
in in all of california

372
00:13:38,310 --> 00:13:35,519
so if you're trying to find the weather

373
00:13:40,069 --> 00:13:38,320
for what particular location based on

374
00:13:41,430 --> 00:13:40,079
on the sounding

375
00:13:43,350 --> 00:13:41,440
it's not going to be that close because

376
00:13:44,550 --> 00:13:43,360
if you go back to

377
00:13:47,829 --> 00:13:44,560
to the earth

378
00:13:49,590 --> 00:13:47,839
site and look at just the variation i

379
00:13:52,069 --> 00:13:49,600
say within a location like this this is

380
00:13:54,389 --> 00:13:52,079
one site is blowing one way and just a

381
00:13:55,990 --> 00:13:54,399
bit further over here very close to the

382
00:13:57,430 --> 00:13:56,000
same weather station it's blowing in

383
00:13:59,350 --> 00:13:57,440
completely the other direction and the

384
00:14:01,269 --> 00:13:59,360
weather station itself will have a third

385
00:14:02,550 --> 00:14:01,279
wind speed so

386
00:14:05,350 --> 00:14:02,560
if you're using

387
00:14:07,829 --> 00:14:05,360
the data from a sounding

388
00:14:10,150 --> 00:14:07,839
it may well be completely wrong

389
00:14:11,750 --> 00:14:10,160
it could be 180 degrees away from what

390
00:14:13,590 --> 00:14:11,760
you're doing and a different uh

391
00:14:15,910 --> 00:14:13,600
different set of

392
00:14:17,430 --> 00:14:15,920
numbers entirely but going back to this

393
00:14:20,389 --> 00:14:17,440
we can actually look at it it's pretty

394
00:14:23,670 --> 00:14:20,399
interesting let's click on tucson

395
00:14:25,030 --> 00:14:23,680
and tucson is going to give us uh this

396
00:14:26,470 --> 00:14:25,040
long list

397
00:14:30,230 --> 00:14:26,480
of data

398
00:14:31,350 --> 00:14:30,240
now it gives it based on on the uh the

399
00:14:33,269 --> 00:14:31,360
pressure

400
00:14:34,230 --> 00:14:33,279
like we were seeing earlier that you can

401
00:14:37,750 --> 00:14:34,240
pick the different pressures now

402
00:14:40,949 --> 00:14:37,760
remember we had uh was it 850

403
00:14:42,629 --> 00:14:40,959
and we had 700 so you can see you've got

404
00:14:44,230 --> 00:14:42,639
much higher resolution you've got a much

405
00:14:45,750 --> 00:14:44,240
wider range of different things you can

406
00:14:47,910 --> 00:14:45,760
pick from here which is great if you

407
00:14:49,670 --> 00:14:47,920
happen to

408
00:14:51,910 --> 00:14:49,680
live just directly underneath you know

409
00:14:54,230 --> 00:14:51,920
if your ufo was spotted in downtown

410
00:14:56,710 --> 00:14:54,240
tucson this would be wonderful but the

411
00:14:57,910 --> 00:14:56,720
ufo was spotted 50 miles away

412
00:15:01,030 --> 00:14:57,920
but we can kind of use this to kind of

413
00:15:04,150 --> 00:15:01,040
validate uh what what we uh we we saw

414
00:15:08,069 --> 00:15:04,160
earlier and so 750

415
00:15:09,990 --> 00:15:08,079
is uh 700 was one of the the numbers now

416
00:15:12,150 --> 00:15:10,000
here it looks you know we've only got

417
00:15:14,230 --> 00:15:12,160
two degree it took two knots very slow

418
00:15:17,670 --> 00:15:14,240
wind speed right here

419
00:15:19,269 --> 00:15:17,680
and uh the direction is at 255 so this

420
00:15:20,710 --> 00:15:19,279
is coming from the west which is what we

421
00:15:22,949 --> 00:15:20,720
actually saw

422
00:15:24,069 --> 00:15:22,959
in the the earth site if we go here

423
00:15:25,509 --> 00:15:24,079
you'll see it

424
00:15:28,550 --> 00:15:25,519
700

425
00:15:30,310 --> 00:15:28,560
we have a very low wind speed right here

426
00:15:32,150 --> 00:15:30,320
coming from the west and that matches

427
00:15:34,629 --> 00:15:32,160
what we see here

428
00:15:39,590 --> 00:15:34,639
so if you go to 850 we have a wind speed

429
00:15:41,590 --> 00:15:39,600
of seven knots coming from 90. now 90 is

430
00:15:44,069 --> 00:15:41,600
90 degrees is

431
00:15:45,910 --> 00:15:44,079
coming from the

432
00:15:47,749 --> 00:15:45,920
east blowing towards the west which is

433
00:15:51,030 --> 00:15:47,759
more or less what we want

434
00:15:54,629 --> 00:15:51,040
and as we go a little higher

435
00:15:57,110 --> 00:15:54,639
it kind of swings down a bit lower a bit

436
00:16:00,069 --> 00:15:57,120
down towards the southwest so as we're

437
00:16:02,790 --> 00:16:00,079
getting around is actually

438
00:16:03,910 --> 00:16:02,800
in the the altitude we want 2400 it's

439
00:16:07,269 --> 00:16:03,920
more or less

440
00:16:10,310 --> 00:16:07,279
going towards the northwest

441
00:16:13,990 --> 00:16:10,320
which is useful information

442
00:16:16,389 --> 00:16:14,000
if we if we take that and uh apply it to

443
00:16:18,470 --> 00:16:16,399
these two things here and think that it

444
00:16:20,710 --> 00:16:18,480
moves the same way as it does in tucson

445
00:16:23,269 --> 00:16:20,720
then that very much implies that now we

446
00:16:26,710 --> 00:16:23,279
do have a wind direction of about 10

447
00:16:29,269 --> 00:16:26,720
knots moving towards the northwest

448
00:16:31,829 --> 00:16:29,279
from the southeast so that does actually

449
00:16:34,470 --> 00:16:31,839
work for the the balloon hypothesis if

450
00:16:37,110 --> 00:16:34,480
where the balloons moving at about 10

451
00:16:39,990 --> 00:16:37,120
knots but it's like i said it's kind of

452
00:16:41,990 --> 00:16:40,000
difficult to actually take this sounding

453
00:16:43,749 --> 00:16:42,000
and apply it to something that's 40

454
00:16:46,389 --> 00:16:43,759
miles away now we're kind of lucky 50

455
00:16:48,710 --> 00:16:46,399
miles away we're kind of lucky here in

456
00:16:50,470 --> 00:16:48,720
that it's fairly close so it's more

457
00:16:52,150 --> 00:16:50,480
likely to be accurate but we saw by

458
00:16:54,550 --> 00:16:52,160
looking at the map that it doesn't take

459
00:16:56,710 --> 00:16:54,560
very much for things to go off but based

460
00:16:59,749 --> 00:16:56,720
on everything we know

461
00:17:03,189 --> 00:16:59,759
uh based on this sounding and based on

462
00:17:05,350 --> 00:17:03,199
the looking at the actual uh

463
00:17:07,750 --> 00:17:05,360
chart the actual map of the the wind

464
00:17:10,870 --> 00:17:07,760
flow it seems fairly plausible that the

465
00:17:12,870 --> 00:17:10,880
wind was in fact blowing towards uh the

466
00:17:15,029 --> 00:17:12,880
northwest from the southeast the south

467
00:17:17,510 --> 00:17:15,039
easterly wind so the bottom line is it's

468
00:17:20,870 --> 00:17:17,520
uh it's quite difficult to get a wind at

469
00:17:24,789 --> 00:17:20,880
a specific altitude at a specific time

470
00:17:27,029 --> 00:17:24,799
and at a specific location the soundings

471
00:17:28,950 --> 00:17:27,039
that we were looking at earlier uh

472
00:17:31,510 --> 00:17:28,960
they're at 12 zulu which is three hours

473
00:17:33,029 --> 00:17:31,520
later than the actual sighting which is

474
00:17:34,710 --> 00:17:33,039
at nine to zulu

475
00:17:36,950 --> 00:17:34,720
so even though this all seems to more or

476
00:17:38,789 --> 00:17:36,960
less match three hours earlier it could

477
00:17:40,470 --> 00:17:38,799
have been uh somewhat different you know

478
00:17:42,549 --> 00:17:40,480
if we move over here we'd actually move

479
00:17:44,070 --> 00:17:42,559
this to 12 zulu

480
00:17:45,990 --> 00:17:44,080
we can see it doesn't actually change

481
00:17:48,310 --> 00:17:46,000
that much which is good so we can use

482
00:17:49,830 --> 00:17:48,320
this chart to kind of verify our

483
00:17:51,750 --> 00:17:49,840
assumptions about

484
00:17:53,669 --> 00:17:51,760
uh the soundings

485
00:17:56,630 --> 00:17:53,679
but we can't tell for sure we can't be

486
00:17:58,710 --> 00:17:56,640
100 certain that the wind is in fact

487
00:18:00,390 --> 00:17:58,720
going in the right direction we can say

488
00:18:03,190 --> 00:18:00,400
it's certainly possible

489
00:18:04,710 --> 00:18:03,200
and it certainly appears that it's going

490
00:18:07,110 --> 00:18:04,720
in that direction

491
00:18:08,630 --> 00:18:07,120
but uh if someone tells you for sure

492
00:18:12,070 --> 00:18:08,640
that there's no way it can be a balloon

493
00:18:14,230 --> 00:18:12,080
or for sure it is moving at wind speed

494
00:18:16,710 --> 00:18:14,240
then you know they they're they're wrong

495
00:18:19,029 --> 00:18:16,720
because you can't tell for sure the vast

496
00:18:21,990 --> 00:18:19,039
majority of the times

497
00:18:25,110 --> 00:18:22,000
i'd give this particular one maybe a 90

498
00:18:27,510 --> 00:18:25,120
probability of it being um blowing

499
00:18:29,110 --> 00:18:27,520
towards the northwest being from the